AP Photo/Jim Mone
Byron Buxton. A name that has been used restlessly for years when discussing the next best outfielders MLB has to offer. However, when you look at his statistics over the last few years, next best outfielder is not what you would think. A prospect who looked destined to appear in numerous All-Star games, has fallen painfully short of expectations. Minnesota Twins fans have been waiting for a long time for their prized prospect to shine bright, and although it looks like he may be a lost cause, Twins fans should not give up on him.
Decrypting Byron Buxton’s career so far is a challenge because whenever it looks like he is about to burst into a superstar, he falls into a slump. From April to August of last season, Buxton was abysmal, hitting .193/.247/.315 while also getting sent down to Triple-A twice. In Triple-A, Buxton hit very well during his two stints in Rochester. He slashed .305/.359/.568 with 11 home runs in 209 plate appearances. The Twins called Buxton up late in the season, and he continued his success in the majors during the month of September, hitting .287/.357/.653 with nine homers in 113 plate appearances. Buxton was looking like the player that Twins fans had been waiting for.
His late success last season rewarding him with the starting center field job, but Buxton has failed to pick up where he left last season. Through ten games and 38 plate appearances, Buxton is hitting an abhorrent .081/.105/.108 with no home runs or RBIs and one run scored. However, the most daunting number, the one that has defined his career up to this point is his strikeout percentage, which, this year, is 52.6%. Yes, you read that correctly. Byron Buxton is striking out on more that half of his plate appearances. His 52.6 K% is 13.2 percentage points higher than the next largest number, which is Brandon Moss at 39.4%. Among qualifying hitters in MLB history, Jake Stahl has the highest career K% at 50.0%.
What is causing his incredibly high K%? Although this is oversimplifying his problems at the plate, his biggest issue is just contact. Obviously a lot goes into making contact, such as hitting mechanics and approach, but Byron Buxton is just not making contact. His contact percentage this season is 59.3% which is the fourth worst in baseball and a significant decrease from his contact percentage the last two seasons which were 67.9 and 70.4% respectively.
A big factor in Buxton’s extremely low contact percentage is his lack of plate discipline. This season, he has swung at 41.0% of pitches out of the strike zone which is a significant increase from his previous two seasons, which were 33.2 and 29.9% respectively. His eagerness to swing on pitches out of the zone has resulted in a 35.3 contact percentage on such pitches. If Buxton can become more disciplined at the plate, he can become a very solid hitter, but this is not an easy thing to do.
(Fangraphs)
If Byron Buxton has been such a poor hitter, why am I optimistic about his future. Well, he is one of the fastest, best defensive center fielders in baseball. Last season, according to Fangraphs, he had a batting runs above average of -5.4. That is terrible. However, he had a baserunning runs above average of 5.8 and a fielding runs above average of 3.9. Fangraphs gave him a 80/80 for speed, a 65/70 for fielding, and a 65/65 for throwing.
Not only does Buxton convert every routine play in the outfield (he actually had a fielding percentage of 100% on routine plays), he also converts plays that no other outfielder could convert. According to Fangraphs, on “even” plays which have a 40-60% of being converted, Buxton converted 75%. On “unlikely” plays, with a 10-40% chance of being converted, Buxton converted 60%. On “remote” plays, with a 1-10% chance of being converted, Buxton converted 10%.
Although Byron Buxton has a long way to go to be a successful hitter at the major league level, I believe that he can get there. In the meantime, he is one heck of a fielder and base runner and provides the Twins a ton a value in those areas.