Associated Press
We are about a month into the MLB season and everybody is on the DL. If you play fantasy baseball, it is almost guaranteed that your team has been affected by injuries. Look at my team for example. Right now, Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Nola, and Stephen Piscotty are on the DL and Mike Trout has missed the last four games. Starling Marte is also suspended for 80 games but that is unrelated.
Every team is battling injuries right now, so if you want to win your league, you have to make some moves. One way to do this is to buy low on players that have struggled so far this season, hoping that they get back to their previous production. Here are three hitters that are great candidates to buy low right now, putting you in position to win your league.
Disclaimer: me writing about them does not guarantee that they will bounce back, just that they are good candidates to. If you trade a lot for them and they continue to struggle, do not blame me. This is just advice to help you in your fantasy league.
Rougned Odor
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The metric I look at first when trying to find solid buy-low candidates is their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). BABIP measures “how often a ball in play goes for a hit.” Because this only takes into account balls in play, a large part of this metric is luck. Typically, a hitter’s BABIP will be around .300, but if it is well below .300, it is likely that they have not been very lucky when putting the ball in play. (If you want to know more about BABIP, go to Fangraphs.com). If you want to find good buy-low candidates, look at hitters with a BABIP under .300 and under their personal average.
Rougned Odor has a BABIP of .191 which is well below .300 and his career average of .284. This means that he is putting the ball in play a lot, but he has not been getting a lot of hits. This can either be a result of bad luck or possibly more strikeouts. However, last season Odor struck out on 21.4% of plate appearances and this season he has struck out on 21.7% of plate appearances, which is a miniscule difference. This suggests that he has been unlucky at the plate, which if it reverts back to normal levels means that Odor’s average will increase as the year goes on.
Andrew McCutchen
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Last season, Andrew McCutchen looked like a different player than he had his whole career. After being considered one of the most reliable hitters in baseball, McCutchen had a very disappointing season. Although his home runs were right around his career average, his RBIs, stolen bases, and batting average all saw major dips. Because of this, McCutchen fell dramatically in fantasy drafts. The question whether that was just a down year or the beginning of the end for one of the league’s best players was a legitimate question.
McCutchen has not gotten off to a terrible start this season, hitting five home runs and 15 RBIs through Pittsburgh’s first 31 games. However, his average is only .221. This is due, though, to a very low BABIP of only .230. Again, this can either be due to bad luck or more strikeouts. McCutchen has actually decreased his K% from 21.2% last season to 17.2% this season. This shows that McCutchen has been extremely unlucky this year. Because of this, McCutchen should be getting a lot more hits than he has been so far, raising his batting average closer to his career number.
Throughout McCutchen’s career, he has a BABIP of .329. Last season, his BABIP was only .297, so not only has he been unlucky this season, he was unlucky last season. This is why he saw a dip in production. Last season should be seen as an anomaly, not the beginning of a downward trend for Andrew McCutchen. Also, because of his down season last year and his slide in fantasy drafts, he may be easier to acquire than other players with his potential.
Jonathan Villar
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Jonathan Villar had himself a breakout season last year where he hit .285 with 19 homers, 92 runs scored, and 62 stolen bases, which was 15 more than the next highest total. Because of Villar’s stat sheet stuffing ability, he was drafted very early in fantasy drafts, but he has failed to live up to expectations so far this season.
Just like the previous two names on this list, Villar has a BABIP this season (.265) well below .300 and his career average (.339). However, unlike Odor and McCutchen, Villar’s K% has actually increased this season from 25.6% last year to 31.5% this year. Also, his BB% has dropped from 11.6% to 7.0%. This makes it slightly more difficult to predict a large improvement for Villar.
Although his K% is slightly higher this year, his average should still definitely increase because his BABIP is consistently well over .300 due to his incredible speed and ability to get infield hits. Villar also has 2B, SS, and 3B eligibility in Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS leagues, so he can be a very valuable asset that can be bought on the cheap if his owner is willing to part ways with the struggling high draft pick.