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“Offense wins games, defense wins championships.” These six words are constantly uttered by coaches of all sports to emphasize the importance of defense; that you can’t win a championship without excelling at defense. But in the world of baseball, what about base running? Everyone recognizes the importance of a deep lineup, a strong rotation, and a solid bullpen, but should great base running be considered just as important?
On Sunday, the Chicago White Sox played the San Diego Padres— riveting matchup am I right? (I’m a White Sox fan so I can say that). In the midst of what became an eight run eighth inning, Todd Frazier scored from third on a popped up bunt attempt by Tyler Saladino. When Padres first baseman Wil Myers turned his back to Frazier on third and nonchalantly tossed the ball to the pitcher, Frazier raced home and scored on an errant throw. Although the run seemed inconsequential, Frazier’s hustle and heads-up base running made me really think about the importance of base running. How much of a factor is base running in determining the success of a baseball team?
The first statistic I looked at in order to determine the value of base running was base running value from Fangraphs.com. These are the teams that had the highest base running value in the MLB last season and how they finished:
(Fangraphs.com)
This list of the top base running teams in the MLB is also a very diverse list. Four of the seven teams won their division including the two World Series participants and three teams finished fourth or lower (although the Yankees did win 84 games). The Padres and Diamondbacks were both terrible in the other aspects of the game, so they can be seen as outliers in terms of teams with a high base running value and where they finished at the end the season. Because of this, you can see that base running is definitely a crucial aspect to baseball because the teams that excelled in that area were very successful come season end.
But what makes a good base running team? One area of base running that could key us into the answer for this question is aggressiveness. To figure out which teams were the most aggressive base running teams, I investigated which teams made the most outs on the base path. If a team makes a lot of outs on the base path, they are leaving a lot of potential runs on base. In a close game, a good base running play that leads to one run can be make all the difference. These are the teams who made the most outs on the base path last season and how they finished:
(Baseball-reference.com)
This is a very diverse mix of teams. There are three division winners, the World Series Champion, and three teams that finished fourth in their division. This statistic alone did not really tell me a lot of information about the value of base running. All I can really gather from it is that the teams listed above were among the more aggressive base running teams in the league, but that doesn’t tell me whether or not their aggressiveness paid off.
Of the seven teams who made the most outs on the base path, only the Red Sox and Cubs were also in the top seven in base running value. However, that does not mean that aggressive base running does not lead to a high base running value. The teams that made the most outs on the base path were definitely aggressive but also made some poor base running decisions. That’s why those teams— except for the Cubs and Red Sox— had low base running values. It is necessary for a good baseball team to be aggressive, but you can’t make too many mistakes leading to outs, limiting run-scoring opportunities.
Many people may only be thinking about stealing bases when considering base running aggressiveness, but advancing multiple bases on hits, such as going from first to third on a single, may be a better indicator of base running aggressiveness. According to baseball-reference, these are the teams that had the highest extra bases taken percentage (“percentage of times the runner advanced more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double, when possible”) last season and how they finished:
(Baseball-reference.com)
This list is a little longer because eight different teams had an XBT% of 43%. Still, in the top eleven, there are six division winners. There are six divisions in the MLB, so every team that won their division finished in the top eleven in XBT%. This clearly shows the importance of smart, aggressive base running. Advancing even one base on a single gives a team an improved opportunity at scoring a run; a fly ball to the outfield will score a runner from third but not from second (assuming nothing odd takes place). Although this extra run may not make a difference in the long course of a season, it can determine the fate of a team in the playoffs where every run matters. So not only does smart, aggressive base running result in a better record, it gives a team a better shot at winning in October.
It may have taken a while, but I think I illustrated a clear connection between smart, aggressive base running and a successful season. However, a team still needs a deep lineup, a strong rotation, and a solid bullpen in order to reach the promised land. You can’t rely solely on base running. Just ask the Padres and Diamondbacks.