(David Banks/Getty Images North America)
It’s been twelve years since the Chicago White Sox made the playoffs and fifteen since their historic 11-1 postseason run en route to their first World Series Win in 88 years. The White Sox front office, determined to end these streaks, had the busiest offseason of any team in the league, placing the White Sox in a prime position to compete in the weak AL Central for years to come. This preview of the 2020 White Sox will analyze where they stand at each position heading into the season.
Catcher
The White Sox have had a gaping hole behind the plate ever since AJ Pierzynski left after the 2012 season (also the last season the White Sox had a .500 record). Having an All-Star catcher in James McCann last season was a revelation for the Sox, but it was a tale of two halves for him. After excelling in the first half of the season with a 133 wRC+, McCann struggled mightily in the second half, posting a wRC+ of 83, including a putrid 34 wRC+ during the month of July. Because of this, the White Sox added the best catcher on the market and one of the best catchers in the league during free agency, Yasmani Grandal.
(Yasmani Grandal, Baseball Savant)
Last season, Grandal had the second most fWAR among catchers, compiling 5.2 fWAR over 153 games for the Brewers. He was able to have such an impressive season by excelling both at the plate and behind it. Grandal is a great pitch framer (79th percentile), which is a massive improvement over McCann, who was in the eleventh percentile. Grandal was also in the 84th percentile in xwOBA at .363.
Grandal’s patient approach at the plate will be a huge addition to the White Sox who were last in walk percentage (6.3%) and total walks (378). Grandal was tied for second in MLB with a 17.2 BB%. Signing Grandal at the beginning of the offseason set the tone for the rest of the offseason and gave Sox fans optimism for the future. McCann will still be a valuable backup catcher — he created a great rapport with Lucas Giolito last year — but Grandal was a necessary addition for a Sox team looking to compete in 2020.
First Base
José Abreu has been a consistent force for the White Sox in the middle of their order for all six years he has worn the black and white, posting a wRC+ of 115 or higher each year. The White Sox rewarded Abreu for his consistency with a three-year, $50 million extension.
(José Abreu, Baseball Savant)
Even as he ages, Abreu continues to mash the ball, ranking in the 94th percentile for exit velocity (92.1 mph) and 93rd percentile for hard hit percentage (48.2%). Although his less than spectacular defense suggests a move to DH in his future, José Abreu should continue to produce tremendous power as the White Sox starting first baseman.
Second Base
The White Sox second baseman of the future, Nick Madrigal, will likely start the season in AAA, but should get called up to the majors after a few weeks. When he gets to the big leagues, what will he bring to the Sox?
It can be hard to predict how players will transition to the majors, but Madrigal seems like an easier prospect to project. He may not hit for much power, but he very rarely strikes out. Madrigal had a K% of 3.7% last year in AAA and 2.8% in both AA and A+. For reference, Hanser Alberto had the lowest K% in the majors last year at 9.1%. Madrigal will obviously strike out more in the majors, but even if he triples how often he strikes out, he will be among the league leaders in K%.
Madrigal also projects as an elite defender at second base with a lot of speed. Combining his speed and defensive abilities results in a very valuable player, even if he continues to hit with minimal power.
Third Base
It took some time, but Yoan Moncada is finally looking like the franchise player the White Sox were hoping for when they received him in the Chris Sale trade. Moncada was the Sox’s best player last year, accumulating 5.7 fWAR and a 141 wRC+.
One of the reasons for Moncada’s breakout season was his improvement as a right-handed hitter. In 2018, he had a .262 wOBA and 64 wRC+ from the right side and a .328 wOBA and 109 wRC+ from the left side. In 2019, he drastically improved his numbers, especially from the right side, to .352 and 122 as a righty and .391 and 148 as a lefty.
(Yoan Moncada, Baseball Savant)
There is some concern for regression due to Moncada’s historically high BABIP (his BABIP of .409 is the ninth highest mark in MLB history). Because of this, he is unlikely to have a batting average of .315 again next year. However, Statcast has him in the 97th percentile in exit velocity and 92nd percentile in hard hit percentage. Combine this with his speed (72nd percentile in sprint speed) and Moncada should naturally have a relatively high BABIP. If he can cut down his K% a little bit more (it was 27.5% last year), Moncada should still be an All-Star caliber player even with BABIP regression.
Short Stop
Tim Anderson had, by far, his best season of his career last year, batting .335 en route to the AL batting title. He also had a great .363 wOBA and 130 wRC+ last season while bringing national media attention to the South Side for his electrifying charizma on and off the field.
Similar to Moncada, Anderson had an extremely high BABIP of .399. However, unlike Moncada, Anderson does not hit the ball very hard, ranking in the 36th percentile in exit velocity and 39th percentile in hard hit percentage. On top of that, Anderson had a miniscule BB% of 2.9%, which was tied for the second lowest mark in 2019.
(Tim Anderson, Baseball Savant)
Anderson will likely regress due to his high BABIP and soft contact. He will likely perform somewhere between last year and the year before where he had a .294 wOBA and 86 wRC+. I would expect output similar to his rookie season where he had a .315 wOBA and 98 wRC+. This would still make Anderson a valuable starter, but to become more, he definitely needs to improve his defense and patience at the plate.
Outfield
After having one of the worst outfields in baseball the last couple of years, the White Sox finally look like they will have productive players in all three positions. The biggest question mark in the outfield is in right field, where newly acquired Nomar Mazara is slated to start.
Mazara has been an average hitter through his first four seasons, and a below average fielder, so he does not appear to be the long term starter in right field. Last year, Mazara had a wOBA of .327 and a wRC+ of 94. Against righties, he had a wOBA of .350 and a wRC+ of 110, so he was significantly better against righties.
This creates an opportunity for the Sox to platoon him with another outfielder who can hit lefties. A potential platoon partner could be Adam Engel. Engel has been a great defensive center fielder, but has been subpar at the plate. However, last year, he had a wOBA of .356 and a wRC+ of 125 against lefties. He had a BABIP of .407 so he would likely regress, but Engel could still be a decent platoon option with Mazara.
After signing a six-year, $50 million with a potential total value of $88 million, Luis Robert is expected to start the season in center field. One of the best prospects in baseball, Robert is a five-tool player with MVP upside. Robert may not produce to his utmost potential immediately for the Sox — many of their prospects have taken time to develop — but the White Sox have their center fielder of the future in Luis Robert.
They also have their left fielder of the future in Eloy Jimenez. After struggling at the plate early in his rookie season, Jimenez turned into an elite hitter in the second half of the season. He had a 128 wRC+ in the second half, including an outstanding 184 wRC+ in the month of September on his way to winning AL Rookie of the Month. He hits the ball incredibly hard, ranking in the 87th and 92nd percentiles in exit velocity and hard hit percentage respectively, and he projects as one of the White Sox’s best hitters for years to come.
(Eloy Jimenez, Baseball Savant)
Jimenez would benefit from improving his defense, not only for the Sox’s sake, but also for his own. He was one of the worst defenders in baseball last year, and he hurt himself on a couple of occasions as a result of his dreadful defense. He should still provide more than enough value at the plate to make up for his awful defense, and he’s only 23 years old, so he still has time to improve in both areas.
DH
The DH spot in the White Sox order was a built in bathroom break. No other team had less production from the DH position than whoever Ricky Renteria slotted into that spot. The Sox DHs combined for -3.5 fWAR and a wRC+ of 64. They slashed .197/.275/.342 with a wOBA of .266. Every single one of these numbers was the worst in the league.
Adding a DH this offseason was paramount for the White Sox in order to compete in 2020. Edwin Encarnación may have just turned 37 years old, but he has been one of the most consistent power hitters in the league for almost a decade, hitting at least 32 home runs in eight straight seasons. Even if he is not the same player he was earlier in his career, the White Sox only need him to add some power to the middle of the lineup from a position that has been ineffective for years.
Starting Pitchers
(Getty Images North America)
The White Sox starting rotation in 2019 was extremely top heavy. Lucas Giolito transformed into an ace, but the other pitchers behind him ranged from streaky to atrocious, with the majority of them leaning heavily towards atrocious. The aforementioned Giolito may have been the absolute worst pitcher in baseball in 2018 with a 6.13 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 5.46 xFIP. Last year, the All-Star pitcher had a 3.41 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 3.66 xFIP. He was able to do improve this numbers and accumulate 5.1 fWAR by drastically improving his K% from 16.1% to 32.3% and BB% from 11.6% to 8.1%. Finding an ace in Giolito last season was huge for Chicago’s future.
Reynaldo Lopez, who the Sox acquired from Washington with Giolito, did not take the same steps forward as Giolito did last season. He was incredibly inconsistent, striking out fourteen batters in one game, but ultimately disappointing in the vast majority of his starts. He throws hard — he’s in the 83rd percentile in fastball velocity — but lacks spin on his pitches (22nd percentile in fastball spin and 7th percentile in curveball spin). He still has upside as he’s shown in some of his starts, but Lopez has to become more consistent to be a real contributor in the White Sox rotation.
Another one of Chicago’s young pitching prospects is Dylan Cease. Cease struggled in his first action in the majors, but like Lopez, he showed tons of potential. He has an elite fastball (93rd percentile in fastball velocity and 87th percentile in fastball spin) but was hurt by his lack of control. If Cease can improve his control, he can be another top-of-the-rotation arm next to Giolito.
The White Sox had a revolving door at the bottom of their rotation, consisting of Dylan Covey, Ross Detwiler, and Manny Banuelos. It was crucial for the Sox to improve their rotation by adding quality pitchers, even if they are not necessarily aces, and that is what they did by signing Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez.
Keuchel is not the same pitcher he was when he won the Cy Young with Houston in 2015; however, he does not need to be in order to be productive for the White Sox. Last season, he had an elite ground ball rate of 60.1%, but his fastball velocity was in the 3rd percentile. Even in his Cy Young season, Keuchel’s fastball velocity was very low, so he should still be a solid pitcher due to his successful changeup, which had a wOBA of .240.
Like Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez has also found success with his changeup. He’s in the seventh percentile in fastball velocity, but 89th and 88th percentile in exit velocity and hard hit percentage respectively. This is because of his elite changeup, which had a wOBA of .207. This should help him remain effective even as he ages.
(Gio Gonzalez, Baseball Savant)
The White Sox also have Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon coming back from injuries at some point this season. It remains to be seen how they will pitch and where they will fit into the rotation when they return, but for the first time in years, the White Sox may actually have real depth in their starting rotation.
Bullpen
Last season, the White Sox bullpen was middle-of-the-pack largely due to the success of closer Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer. However, when digging deeper into Colome’s numbers, it appears that some of his success was due to luck. He had a 2.80 ERA, but a 4.08 FIP and 4.62 xFIP. His .215 BABIP also suggests he’s due regression. Colome’s wOBA was very good at .261, but he had an xwOBA .327.
(Alex Colome, Baseball Savant)
His Statcast profile (see above image) also suggest regression due to the fact that he was in the second percentile in exit velocity and 12th percentile in hard hit percentage. The good news is that Colome has had similar numbers throughout his career — he has always given up hard contact — and has been a successful closer, but his regression in BABIP is cause for concern.
Aaron Bummer also had a very low BABIP last season (.228) during his remarkable year in which he had a 2.13 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and 72.1% GB%, which was second among all relievers. His low BABIP is less of a concern compared to Colome due to his impressive Statcast profile. He was in the top 1% in barrel % (2.3%) and xSLG (.281), the top 2% in wOBA (.235), and the top 4% in xwOBA (.256). He gives up some hard contact, but he has been using his high-quality sinker, which had an average velocity of 95.6 mph last season (up from 93.1 mph the year before), more each year.
Evan Marshall, whose Statcast profile is shown below, was also a successful arm out of the pen due to his ability to limit hard contact. This is especially important for him because he doesn’t strike a lot of batters out (19.6 K% last season). He would definitely benefit from improving his fastball command, but his changeup helped him pitch to contact and still get batters out.
(Evan Marshall, Baseball Savant)
Another pitcher who would benefit greatly from improving his command is Jace Fry, who had the highest BB% in baseball last year 17.1%. This was a dramatic increase from the year before, in which he only walked 9.3% of batters. He showed in 2018 that he could strike out a lot of professional hitters (his 32.7 K% was in the 94th percentile), and he can be successful again next year if he can bring his walks down.
After dominating the White Sox consistently in a Royals jersey, Kelvin Herrera joined the Sox and proceeded to have his worst season of his career. He did have some bad luck last season, illustrated by his .347 BABIP, so regression to the mean should help him. Herrera gave up very little hard contact, ranking in the 93rd percentile in exit velocity and 86th percentile in hard hit percentage, so if he can stay healthy, Herrera could be in store for a bounce-back season.
(Kelvin Herrera, Baseball Savant)
Jimmy Cordero also flexed his muscles out of the pen last year with a fastball and sinker that both averaged 97.4 mph. He was very good in the 36 innings he pitched as a result of a high GB% of 60.4% and lowering his BB% to only 2.9% while with the Sox. He was also excellent at limiting home runs, giving up only .75 per nine innings. His .226 BABIP suggests he is due for some regression, but Cordero can still provide some quality outings for the Sox out of the pen.
The Sox just signed Steve Cishek, who has been a reliable reliever for many years. He is as good as it gets in terms of limiting hard contact as he is in the 99th percentile in both exit velocity and hard hit percentage. He has relied on his sinker and slider for many years and should mesh will with the hard-throwing arms the Sox have in their bullpen.
There are still a lot of question marks with this Sox team — how much will some individual players regress, how will their young core players develop, and how consistent will their rotation and bullpen be — but they will undoubtedly be a significantly better team this year because of the great offseason that they had. These improvements were necessary for the White Sox to move into the next phase of their rebuild: winning.
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