Using the Outcome of Close Games to Predict NFL Teams' Records in 2020

(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

The Coronavirus has impacted almost every facet of life for all humans, but the NFL has been able to weather the storm and continue as planned with free agency, a virtual draft, a virtual offseason program, and schedule release. What also hasn’t been affected by the Coronavirus is the frenzy of predictions that followed the schedule release and the irate fans that were baffled by someone’s predictions for their team.

NFL writers use many different strategies to predict the season, some of which are more effective than others. One strategy that can help predict a team’s record, but isn’t the end all be all, is how a team performed in close games. 

There is a lot of research out there illustrating that a team’s record in close games, point differential of seven or fewer, is close to random (I don’t want to repeat research that someone else has done or steal their research, so click here to read more about the historical data showing this). If a team has a lopsided record in close games one year, they are highly likely to have a reverse record the next year. This can be used to help predict a team’s record. If they went 6-1 in close games the previous year, they will likely regress in this department the following year, leading to a worse record.

We can use teams’ performance in close games last season to identify teams that could see an increase or decrease in wins for next season. In order to do this, I have compiled every teams’ record in games decided by seven points or fewer, along with the difference between wins and losses. These findings are shown in the table below:

Teams who lost at least four more close games than they won are highlighted in green, which includes the Bengals, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, and Lions. These teams should revert back to the norm and see an increase in their win total from last season. Those who won at least four more games than they lost are highlighted in red, which includes the Jets, Ravens, Texans, Packers, Saints, and Seahawks. These teams should regress next season and see a decline in their win totals.

This strategy is only one of the many ways to identify teams that could improve or decline from one year to the next, but it is not 100% accurate or all-encompassing. It does not tell us how many more games these teams will win or lose next season, just that they are in for a different season. 

Other than the Jets, all of the teams that are highlighted in red made the playoffs last season, throwing a wrench in the saying that “sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good”, and all of the teams highlighted in green missed the playoffs. This may lead you to believe that good teams perform better in close games, but the opposite is true. Their performance in close games, which is based on luck, led to them having a playoff season. The randomness of close games is one of the reasons why there is so much variety in playoff teams from year to year. It is more than likely that at least one of the teams highlighted in red will miss the playoffs next year after making it this season.

However, this does not mean that luck was the only reason why a team like the Ravens had a good season and that they will be bad next year. Maybe Lamar Jackson will use his poor playoff performance to motivate him, resulting in the Ravens blowing 12 teams out and losing four close games. The idea is that a team’s record in close games could regress to the norm, but they could remain a playoff team. This is just one of the many tools in our toolbox to help us make predictions for next season, not the only tool.