Prospect Battle: Tre Johnson vs. Kon Knueppel

Tre Johnson and Kon Knueppel are two of the best shooters in the NBA draft, and if you look at mock drafts and big boards, you are likely to see Johnson ahead of Knueppel on some and Knueppel ahead of Johnson on others, so how do they really compare as prospects?

Beyond being excellent shooters, they are not similar prospects, and their differences are what make it such an interesting choice for teams. Tre Johnson is an elite shot-maker. He averaged 19.9 PPG and scored 25 points or more eight times, including 39 points on 14-28 shooting and 7-11 on threes against Arkansas. He was a great three-point shooter (.397 3PT%) on high volume (6.8 attempts per game) with a quick release and great elevation. Johnson is proficient shooting off the catch or off the dribble and has unlimited range. He can get to a three in a multitude of ways, including pin downs, step backs, or pulling up off a screen, using an effective crossover to create space.

The clip below shows the incredible shot-making that Tre Johnson has in his bag. He comes off of a dribble hand-off right into a one-dribble pull-up, deep in the corner with two defenders contesting. Johnson hit shots like this throughout the season, and there are not many players who are this smooth shooting off the dribble.

Here is another clip that showcases Tre Johnson's ability to shoot on the move. He comes off the pin down, right foot down, left foot down, and rises up with great elevation into a smooth jumper.

Tre Johnson is not quite as good from inside the arc, shooting only 45% on twos. He showed some ability to hit turnaround jumpers, but in his struggles to get all of the way to the rim, he had to settle for tough jumpers too often. This will be one of Johnson’s swing skills. To become a reliable scorer in the NBA, as opposed to just a three-point specialist, he will have to improve at creating space inside the arc. 

The clip below shows some of Johnson's issues finishing. He does a good job getting to the rim twice but cannot finish either time. On both drive, Johnson jumps off two feet and avoids contact, attempting a more difficult, acrobatic finish instead of attacking the rim with more force.

Kon Knueppel is not the scorer that Tre Johnson is, handling the ball a lot less and acting as more of a movement shooter and floor spacer. He only averaged 14.4 PPG, but his proficiency inside the arc made him a more efficient scorer than Johnson. Knueppel, along with his .406 3PT% on 5.3 attempts per game, shot 55% on twos and had a .642 TS% compared to .557 for Johnson. Knueppel has good touch around the rim and uses his strong frame to create space. 

Kon Knueppel showcases his mvoement shooting in the clip below, which is very similar to the Tre Johnson clip above. He comes off a pin down into a smooth jumper, needing very little time to get his shot off.

However, what makes Knueppel such an intriguing prospect, and what people who did not watch him much in college fail to recognize, is his all-around game. Although it was not his main role on offense, Knueppel provided real value as a pick and roll ball-handler. He is very patient, keeps his head up, and has the height to pass over the defense. He may not wow viewers with crazy dribble moves or wicked passes, but he is always in control and does not turn the ball over. 

The clip below shows Kon Knueppel navigating a pick and roll with Khaman Maluach, which ends in a lob to Maluach. R.J. Davis is tightly guarding Knueppel off the ball due to Knueppel's shooting prowress, which allows him to get a step on Davis coming around the screen. He is patient and times the pass very well, making an accurate pass right in stride for Maluach.

Knueppel does not have as much potential as Johnson does shooting off the dribble. He is not a great athlete and can struggle to beat defenders off the dribble, relying on lowering a shoulder into his defender to create enough space to get a shot off. Tre Johnson has a more elusive handle and uses his quick, high release to get shots off with limited space. His potential as a high level scorer will be very enticing to teams.

The clip below shows some of Knueppel's struggles to create his own shot. He gets a step on his defender while attacking the basket, but his lack of athleticism forces a tough shot. Instead of going straight to the bucket, he stops and tries to play off of two feet, allowing the help side defender to block his shot.

Although Kon Knueppel’s lack of athleticism limits his ceiling as a defender, he is a solid on-ball defender. He moves his feet pretty well and has the strength to disrupt drives. Knueppel can also guard multiple positions. He may not become a lockdown defender, but his versatility will allow his team to use a variety of lineups. He is not much of a defensive playmaker, he only averaged 1.0 SPG and 0.2 BPG, but he is a smart defender who works extremely hard on that end of the floor. This is especially apparent when Knueppel guards off the ball. He is always in the right position, ready to provide help on drives. He always hustles when rotating and closes out under control. 

Duke switched every pick and roll, forcing Knueppel to defend both quicker guards and bigs. In the clip below, he switches two screens, ending up on Elliot Cadeau. Cadeau tries to take Knueppel off the dribble, but Knueppel stays with him and blocks his attempt at the rim.

Tre Johnson is not quite the defender that Knueppel is. He gets beat off the dribble too often and does not do a great job navigating screens. He can lose shooters on the perimeter as he pinches in too deep as a help defender. Johnson did carry a huge load offensively for Texas, expending a lot of energy on that side of the ball, so maybe his defense will improve once his usage decreases in the NBA.

Teams will have to make a very interesting decision if they are picking 5-8 and looking for a wing. Many people will become enamored with Tre Johnson due to his incredible shot making, but Kon Knueppel is the better all around player. I have extreme confidence that both players will be elite shooters in the NBA, but Knueppel adds more with his pick and roll ball-handling and defensive solidity. However, Johnson’s upside is exciting, but upside can be a trap.